Singin' In The Rain is one of the all time great films. Its succeeded in every way a movie can succeed. The main dance number has been celebrated in the form of an ice-skating show, a Disney theme park attraction even a car commercial. Songs like "Make 'Em Laugh" and "Good Morning" are popular and beloved today and are still being sung(Joseph Gordon-Levitt sang Make 'Em Laugh the first time he hosted SNL). Clearly the movie is still relevant, as its the one musical everyone loves even by those that don't like musicals, yet in 1953, the year of the 25th Academy Awards, Singin' In The Rain wasn't even nominated for "Best Picture". Only nominated for "Best Supporting Actress" and "Best Score", neither of which it won. The Searchers inspired a Buddy Holly song. That's all you need to claim in order to be great, yet the film didn't receive a single nomination from The Academy for 1956, not even John Wayne for "Best Actor" even though everyone(The Duke included) pretty much agrees its his best and most definitive performance. Blade Runner's visual effects are nothing short of spectacular. Its one of the few films depicting the future that still looks "futuristic" 32 years after its release, yet it didn't win that golden naked man, losing to a film where its best effect was a muppet(Tron, also released that year, wasn't even nominated for Best Effects, because the Academy thought they filmmakers were "cheating" by using computers. Boy how times change!)
These three examples = I've written above are to show you that whatever wins the Oscars tomorrow is irrelevant. It really doesn't matter. The reason because the concept of The Academy Awards is a flawed one. Film is art, but the best way to truly judge art is to examine test of time. The best films ever made aren't the ones that give you the most laughs, the most thrills and offer a lot to think about, the best ones make you laugh the most, thrilled the most and offer a lot to think about 10, 20, 50, 70, 100 years from now. To look back over over a bunch of films released just last year(with most of the movies being released just a couple months ago) is not enough time to truly examine how great a movie is.
Sure, if you've ever visited the Dolby Theatre(formally the Kodak Theatre) in Hollywood California, you know its a beautiful and massive tourist attraction and that there is a wall with the name of every "Best Picture" engraved on the wall next to the year it was released. And if you've been inside the theatre, you'll also see every poster of every film that's won "Best Picture", so if you do win an Oscar, you'll always be able to claim of part history, and your name will be mention in numerous books(or for a modern-day equivalent, listed in an ever growing group of Wikipedia pages) but in the end, there are far better ways to judge a movie's worth than on the awards of the time, even ones as famous or prestigious as the Oscars. After all, films don't really get any better than the late Harold Ramis' Groundhog Day. The WGA agrees with me, ranking it as the 27th best screenplay ever written, yet when the exact same guild were given the opportunity to nominate it for an Oscar years ago they opted for forgettable and disposable fair like Dave and Sleepless in Seattle(who loves those films today?).
But lets take a look at this year's nominees and see what we've got.
Best Picture:
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Of those films, Her was easily the best. It was the only film I've seen this year that I actually didn't it to end and was excited by each scene as they came. Not sure if the vision of the future will be as effective 30 years from now as today(like when Los Angeles finally does get that train system as portrayed in the movie, it'll merely be a part of reality, and not an interesting possibility of the future) but then again, Her wasn't really about the future, as much as finding a human connection in a technological world that's ever evolving(and what's scary is that there really a lot in the film that's radically more advanced that what we have in today). The Wolf of Wall Street is one that's been growing on me, as many scenes have stayed in my mind much longer that scenes in a lot of films have, and one I could easily see enjoying 20 years from now, however, there was at least a half hour in there I could've easily seen trimmed. Nebraska is the only other film I can see myself rewatching. Its a sweet little film with a lot going for it, though I still prefer About Schmidt, where Alexander Payne tackles a lot of the same themes and ideas. It is rather pathetic, though, that Inside Llewyn Davis couldn't even get nominated(though its tempting to point out how The Big Lebowski didn't receive a single nomination).
Lets be honest though, we all know by now that 12 Years a Slave will be the big winner. While competently made, its a very dry film and one that I don't ever see myself watching a second time.
Best Director
American Hustle(David O. Russel)
Gravity(Alfonso Cuarón)
Nebraska(Alexander Payne)
12 Years A Slave(Steve McQueen)
Martin Scorsese(The Wolf of Wall Street)
Cuarón is the favorite to win for Gravity, thus would split of the Pictures/Directors categories. My only complaint for that is seeing that Gravity is 90% CGI, its hard to really say how much of Gravity Cuarón "owns". By contrast, Nebraska, a far smaller film on a much smaller budget is probably more of Payne's film, as he likely had far more creative control.
If I had to pick from these five, I'd pick Martin Scorsese. It is amazing that a film as energetic and alive as The Wolf Of Wall Street wasn't made by a young upcoming director like Tarantino when he made Reservoir Dogs, but by a 71-year-old legend who at this point in his career really has nothing left to prove. Only shows what an exceptional talent Scorsese really is.
Spike Jonze should've been nominated.
Best Actor
Christian Bale(American Hustle)
Bruce Dern(Nebraska)
Leonard DiCaprio((The Wolf Of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor(12 Years a Slave)
Matthew McConaughey(Dallas Buyes Club)
Matthew McConaughey is going to win this as we all know by now. Dallas Buyers Club is the one film of the group I haven't seen, so I can't really comment if McConaughey deserves it, however, I'm not sure if losing weight should really be what earns you the award. It would be nice if acting legend Bruce Dern won it. He's been acting in movies for forever, and its great to see at 77, he finally gets a leading role for him to sink his teeth into(of course its his unclichéd that really drives the movie).
I also wouldn't mind if Leo won it by surprise, and this is coming from someone who has long been mostly unimpressed with DiCaprio. This is the closest he has come to topping What's Eating Gilbert Grape?
Best Actress
Amy Adams(American Hustle)
Cate Blanchett(Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock(Gravity)
Judi Dench(Philomena)
Meryl Streep(August: Osage County)
Cate Blanchett has got it. No contest. Whatever backlash Blue Jasmine is getting due to Woody Allen's personal life, which has strangely gotten the most publicity this year its gotten in 22 years, it doesn't seem to be mitigating Blanchett's strong performance and her chance at winning(it will be interesting to see if she thanks Woody though).
The biggest crime in the category of course is Emma Thompson not getting a nod for Saving Mr. Banks. Curse the overrated Meryl Streep and her unintelligent Walt Disney bashing!
Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi(Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper(American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender(12 Years a Slave)
Jonah Hill(The Wolf of Wall Street)
Jared Leto(Dallas Buyers Club)
Like the best actor category, Jared Leto will win, though I can't comment much. As a side note, can you imagine the reactions you'd get if you went into a time machine to the year 2007 and told people "Hey, do you know that 7 years from now, the fat kid from Superbad will become a 2-time Oscar nominee!"?
Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins(Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence(American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong'o(12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts(August: Osage County)
June Squibb(Nebraska)
If Jennifer Lawrence hadn't won Best Actress last year, she'd be the frontrunner favorite for this year without any competition, but since she did win, memorably, last year, and has gotten a lot of publicity for it(to think just two years ago a lot of the general public probably couldn't tell you who Jennifer Lawrence was even with the lead of The Hunger Games in her resume) the Academy probably feels they to give someone else a chance which is why Lupita Nyong'o is the frontrunner(which is silly in and of itself, if you've given the best performance of a category, you should win it!)frankly, I found Lupita, like the rest of the film, rather boring.
My thoughts on American Hustle is it was generally just ok, but Lawrence was great(there is at least one scene I will see multiple times in the future, if you've seen the movie you know what that scene is). Regardless if she wins, she's easily on her way to topping the overrated Meryl Streep as "Greatest Living Female Star"(as far as I'm concerned, of course, she's already topped Streep).
Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska
If anything but "Her", wins this category, it will be a major upset. Easily the most original concept of the year, and amazingly the best executed as well.
Of course, I still prefer Being John Malkovich, but it'll be nice to see the always imaginative and inventive Spike Jonze acknowledged.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
12 Years A Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Another category for "12 Years a Slave" to win. Yawwwwn! I'm not really not sure what it means to be the "best adapted script"(I probably have to read the source material for each to be the best judge on what was well adapted or not), I'd frankly would rather see any of the other four win this category.
Best Animated Film
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frosen
The Wind Rises
Frozen. Really no contest. Its funny, because while I wasn't particularly wowed by the film, I am happy to see Frozen a huge success, and its nice to see Disney will finally win this category without the help of Pixar(even the excellent Wreck-It-Ralph inexplicably lost to the disposable Brave), still, Monster's University really should've been nominated! C'mon, can anyone actually claim The Croods was a better movie?
Best Foreign Language Film
The Broken Circle Breakdown
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Missing Picture
Omar
The Great Beauty will probably win this, with The Hunt being a possible upset, but with Blue Is The Warmest Color not nominated, the category is a joke. At least Blue Is The Warmest Color can always claim to have won the Palme d'Or.
Best Documentary Feature
The Act of Killing
20 Feet from Stardom
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
Hoping The Act of Killing will win this, but the one I'm dying to see is Teller's Tim's Vermeer, which, predictably, isn't nominated.
Best Original Score
The Book Thief
Gravity
Her
Philmena
Saving Mr. Banks
I've seen three of the five films and yet none of their scores are really jumping to my mind. Thomas Newman's score for Saving Mr. Banks is decent, but he really had a lot to thank the Sherman Brothers for that.
One depressing fact about recent movies is that they are really lacking in original music scores. The classic movie scores from the likes of John Williams that you can easily hum seem to be long gone. Even big blockbusters like The Avengers offer nothing hummable.
Best Original Song
Happy(Despicable Me 2)
Let It Go(Frozen)
The Moon Song(Her)
Ordinary Love(Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
<strike>Alone, Yet Not Alone</strike>
Let It Go is the only song of this bunch people can actually hum and sing the lyrics to, thus it should win. I can see Ordinary Love winning in an upset though just because of them wanting to pay tribute to Nelson Mandela. If it does though, expect me to make a necklacing joke.
Shame on the Academy though for snubbing my favorite movie song of 2013, the extremely hummable and catchy "Please Mr. Kennedy" from Inside Llewyn Davis.
And since the Academy can actually revoke nominations, can that also extends to wins? If so, they can start at "How Green Was My Valley".
Best Production Design
American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
12 Years A Slave
Her provided a vision of Los Angeles that was both realistic and fantasized. It was wonderfully dreamlike, therefore should win.
But 12 Years A Slave will likely will. Even though it can't be that hard to read history books of plantations and design sets from the past.
Best Cinematography
The Grandmaster
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners
The Academy has a bizarre hatred for both Roger Deakins and Emmanuel Lubezki. Likely because they've either have slept with all the Academy member's wives or they vote Republican. Because of that, I suspect Nebraska will win.
Best Make and Hairstling
Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger
Yes yes, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa will go down in history as Academy Award nominee. I actually think thats kinda awesome, because to quote Jon Stewart on the Oscar nominated Norbit "Too often, the Academy ignores movies that aren't good!" And hey, its not like Steve Prouty wrote or directed Bad Grandpa, so why not?
Still Dallas Buyers Club will win. Fun fact is that the makeup for Dallas Buyers Club, for 28 days of shooting for the entire cast, only cost $250!
Best Costume Design
American Hustle
The Grandmasters
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
12 Years A Slave
My bet is toward The Great Gatsby with The Invisible Woman a close 2nd. What I don't get it why the period films always win this category as oppose to the sci-fi/fantasy films. How hard can it be to open up a history book and see what the fashions were of a particular era? Sci-fi/fantasy films like Her require some creativity and imagination on what the styles of the future will be and often contain the film costumes that are most remembered.
Best Sound Editing
All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolatuion of Smaug
Lone Survivor
Gravity, I guess.
Best Sound Mixing
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor
What's the difference between "Sound Mixing" and "Sound Editing"???
I would love if Inside Llewyn Davis won something, but sadly I expect Gravity to win it.
Best Film Editing
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
12 Years A Slave
Traditionally Best Picture winners win the Film Editing award unless the editing really stand out elsewhere. 93% of Gravity took place on one "set", the set being above the Earth's surface, so clearly the most praise should go to the editors preventing themselves for not boring the audience. Should be the clear winner.
Best Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness
Gravity is the only nominee up for the Best Picture, thus the only film the Academy will feel comfortable voting for.
Best Documentary Short
CaveDigger
Facing Fear
Karma Has No Walls
The Lady In Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: The Last Day of Private Jack Hall
Haven't seen any of these. Maybe if they're on Netflix Instant Stream I'll get around to seeing them eventually, but even then they're not high on my to-do list.
Best Live Action Short
That Wasn't Me
Just Before Losing Everything
Helium
Do I Have To Take Care of Everything?
The Voorman Problem
Same as the Documentary Short.
Best Animated Short Film
Feral
Get A Horse!
Mr. Hublot
Poessions
Room on The Broom
Only one of these I've seen is "Get A Horse!" Neat to see Mickey still has the power to win.
The other I might catch if someone has put em up on YouTube.
Honorary Awards
Angela Lansbury
Steve Martin
Piero Tosi
Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award
Angelina Jolia
Only thing I have to say here is while Steve Marin has had white hair for forever, it is a bit weird to think he's approaching 70.
And I haven't even commented on the Awards ceremony themselves which are always a mixed bag at best. Its hard to make people receiving awards too fascinating. The best part used to always be the montages, but in today's era of YouTube, many videos online are just as if not more impressive. It should also be a law no one outside of TCM does celebrity In Memoriams. There will be a tribute to The Wizard of Oz, which turns 75 this year. But seeing that it'll include Bette Midler singing that's not really something to anticipate.
One of the highlights of the Oscars always used to be that it was the one place where you could see every movie star and at one place. The problem now, of course, is that every celebrity that's worth getting excited about is now 50 or older. Jennifer Lawrence excluded, what uprising "stars" do you see that are particularly gifted and exciting to watch/learn more about? The Academy has tried to appeal the younger crowd by trying to create new "stars" around younger actors like Anne Hathaway and James Franco, but instead of creating legends in the making, all they really succeeded in was creating awkward television.
One thing I am definitely excited about though is Twitter. Its fun to catch the wild and zany tweets from friends and strangers during these award shows. It more often than not makes up for the travesties and dullness that happens through-out the night and makes Oscar night the fun, magical night it was always intended to be. Hard to believe there was ever a time we watched award shows without the internet.
So follow me on Twitter @JJSmithh910 and let the fun begin!
